Macau’s GDP reached 239.4 billion in 2021, up 17.1% YoY compared to 2020. Despite the notable comeback, this figure is only about half of the GDP value recorded in the pre-COVID era back in 2018. This trend is also observed among major economic indicators. Gaming revenue and visitor arrivals rebounded 43.4% YoY and 30.7% YoY respectively in 2021, after hitting bottom in 2020, however, despite the positive news, these figures are still 70% and 78% short of their 2018 levels. While the economy has seemingly turned the corner as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic has subsided it remains subject to a lot of uncertainties, where the pace of recovery in 2022 is likely to depend on the return of inbound visitors.

According to the macroeconomic forecast released by the University of Macau for Macau Studies and Department of Economics, the city’s economy is expected to see growth in the range of 3.6% to 37.9% YoY in 2022, indicating a positive yet incredibly volatile macro-environment ahead.

NEW GAMING LAW IS SET TO CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE

The Macau government has recently published a draft bill on amendments to the gaming law, which may substantially impact the market after its passage. According to the draft, once the current gaming license concessions have expired and the three-year grace period is over, satellite casinos will only be able to operate as a “management company” and charge a “management fee” instead of sharing the profit of the casino directly. However, the details on how the management fee can be charged have not yet been released.