Savills

Publication

COVID-19 and Hong Kong Property

Negotiating an Ancient Disruptor – 
COVID-19’s Impact on Property Markets

At the time of writing there are still many unknowns including how to effectively treat the disease and how quickly it might spread. Different property sectors are responding very differently and effects will be both temporary and long-term.

  • Coming as it has, during a period of trade tension and social unrest, COVID-19 has piled yet more pressure on the local economy and weakened prospects for the local property market.
  • Hardest hit have been the retail and hospitality sectors followed by offices and industrial space while the residential market has not been immune.
  • Plenty has been written about the similarities with SARS in 2003 and there are some – both came after a series of economic blows, both originated in China but quickly spread to Hong Kong.
  • SARS, however, came when the property markets were in a trough rather than the broadly peak conditions we see today and while COVID-19 could cause widespread economic and social disruption, it appears to be mercifully less lethal than SARS.
  • China today has a much greater role in the global economy and to disrupt China is to disrupt the world with consequences for manufacturing and investment far beyond Asia.
  • It seems possible, however, that the new virus may follow a timeline similar to SARS and recede rapidly in the warmer summer months after which a return to normality could be swift.
  • Signs of widespread distress in the investment market have so far not materialized and many landlords will have decided to wait this one out if their holding power allows. 
  • Market fundamentals are unchanged with negative real interest rates, chronic under supply and ample liquidity.
  • An outbreak which lasts beyond June, a pandemic or further mutation are all factors which could change market dynamics quite quickly and result in a broader sell off.
  • Rents have had to react to market conditions and commercial landlords have generally been open to consider at least short term relief measures for tenants.
  • Previous government measures aimed at heading off an asset bubble remain in place and could be unwound if necessary, while new relief measures could be introduced.
  • Some impacts may be longer term, accelerating technology-driven changes in the ways we live, work and shop, while other effects are likely to prove to be only temporary.