• 67% say second lockdown has not impacted plans to move; net balance of 17% now more committed to moving in the next year
• Vaccine an important factor: net balance of 19% say rollout would boost commitment to moving within the year and 23% in next two
• 81% of decisions to buy/sell made pre pandemic or pre stamp duty holiday, so failure to complete not considered a major factor for the prime market
• 25% significantly concerned about beating the stamp duty deadline.  Biggest concern in the £250-500k price band, less so >£1m and a motivator for only 7% of £2m-plus buyers
• Rural, village, small town residents very strongly rooted: 87% want to stay in same type of location
• But core of demand in urban settings remains strong: 44% of central London respondents want to stay central, rising to 47% for the u40s; the remainder likely to stay in outer London or within easy reach of central London
• 69% of downsizers living in an urban setting want to stay put, while many in rural locations plan moves to towns

The UK’s prime housing market has performed extremely strongly since the first lockdown was lifted and the latest social distancing measures have done very little to dent the commitment of buyers and sellers currently in that market, a new survey from Savills has revealed.  The successful rollout of a vaccine against Covid-19 is expected to act as a further confidence boost that would help sustain the market beyond the end of the stamp duty holiday.

Savills surveyed more than 1,300 prime market sellers and prospective buyers during the second UK-wide lockdown and found that while there was slightly greater caution about the prospects of moving within the next 3 months, the lockdown had largely served to reaffirm widespread commitment to moving before the end of 2021. 

Over two-thirds of respondents (67%) said that the second lockdown had no impact on their hope of moving over the next year, and a net balance of 17% said it had made them even more committed.  A net balance of only 2% said it had made them less committed to a move in the short term.

Net balances of 13% and 23% of respondents said a vaccine would increase their commitment to moving in the next 3 and 12 months respectively.  This, coupled with increased appetite for lifestyle change identified by this and previous surveys will continue to support demand for properties with gardens, and homes in villages and more rural settings through next year.

“There has been much conjecture as to whether some of the changes in buyer priorities and preferences brought about by the events of 2020 will continue once a vaccine is found and whether March 31 could represent a cliff-edge in the market,” says Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills.

“We do expect the economic effects of the pandemic to weigh more heavily on the housing market next year, but it looks as though there is a surprising seam of demand among more affluent buyers that is much less sensitive to these factors than the wider market.”

What buyers want and where:

Homeowners in the countryside, villages or small towns appear most content with their current locations.  Asked where they’d like their next home to be, the vast majority (87%) are looking to remain in one of these location types, though there is evidence of movement in and out of these relatively small settlements.

Demand for village and countryside locations from urbanites continues to be strong, with just over a third of those currently living in central London and other cities and suburbs still identifying this as the preferred location for their next home.

“But there remains a core of demand from those who are committed to urban living, particularly upsizers under the age of 40, first time buyers and a group of downsizers who value proximity to amenities,” says Frances Clacy, Savills research analyst.  “And in a sign that the dash for the rural retreat may have slowed a little, 44% of respondents currently based in central London would like to continue city centre living, rising to 47% for the under 40s, while only a third expressed the desire for a more rural setting, and then often as a second home.”

Meanwhile, at the other end of the housing ladder, 69% of downsizers currently living in an urban setting indicated a desire to remain in a town or city, while 51% of those in rural areas hope to move into a village or a small town.

The research comes at a time when data from TwentyCi indicates that the number of agreed sales awaiting exchange stands at over 556,000, some +56% higher than the same time last year, a figure that rises to +94% in the market over £1m. 

The stamp duty holiday has given greater urgency to the market over recent months. 59% respondents expressed concern about their ability to complete a purchase prior to the March 31 deadline; it being a significant concern to 26%.  Unsurprisingly, that was most noticeable in the market between £250,000 to  £500,000 where buyers have benefitted from the greatest savings relative to purchase price, but considered much less of a concern above the £1m mark.  Above £2m only 7% of respondents considered the stamp duty saving as a significant motivator. 

“While we expect transaction levels in the first half of next year to be concentrated in the first three months, this survey tells us is that decisions to move home are not made and broken in days and weeks,” said Cook.  “Eight in ten (81%) of respondents made the decision to move either before the pandemic or during the first lockdown.  This means decisions were made before the stamp duty holiday was announced, so a failure to move prior to March 31 is not expected to cause substantial fall-throughs. 

“Rather, situations where sales struggle to complete before the deadline may require pragmatism on the part of buyers and sellers, which suggests that despite robust levels of demand across the prime market, the price sensitivity we have seen over the year will continue to be a factor in the market.”

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