A time-travelling tour of UK house price growth

The Savills Blog

A time-travelling tour of UK house price growth

Today marks 60 years since a British cultural juggernaut set off on its epic journey through space and time. 

Doctor Who follows rogue Time Lord, the Doctor, on a race across the universe, picking up companions, battling evil and saving planets in peril along the way.

But if the Doctor had ceased wandering the galaxy when he came to Earth in 1963 and settled down in the UK, trading in the TARDIS for a more terrestrial form of housing instead, how much would they have paid and what kind of house price growth would they have accrued? 

Travelling back to when it all began, the average UK house price was just £2,900. Over the 60 year period – marked by 13 different doctors – house prices have grown by 12,280 per cent to an average £260,000. 

That may seem out of this world – here’s a look at the Time Lord’s time frame in more detail:

1. William Hartnell, 1st Doctor, 1963-1966, 6.8 per cent average annual growth

The one that started it all, introducing such icons as the TARDIS, the Daleks and the Cybermen as well as the concept of regeneration. Hartnell’s tenure oversaw consistent price growth and a strong period of housebuilding, including a lot from private enterprise.

2. Patrick Troughton, 2nd Doctor, 1966-1969, 6.5 per cent average annual growth

Playing a more impish personality than his predecessor and often seen with a recorder, during his tenure the housing market saw consistent price growth, with housebuilding also peaking during this time, at c.426,000 homes in 1968.

3. Jon Pertwee, 3rd Doctor, 1970-1974, 21.5 per cent average annual growth

Pertwee’s Doctor spent much of his tenure exiled to Earth by his people. During this time in the UK, he would have experienced an easing of credit conditions which led to the most significant spike in price growth experienced by any incarnation.  

4. Tom Baker, 4th Doctor, 1974-1981, 14.5 per cent average annual growth

Tom Baker is the longest-serving Doctor, with his trademark long scarf and penchant for Jelly Babies. In the early part of his tenure, inflation was running at extreme highs, peaking at 25 per cent in 1975. However, towards the end of his time, house price growth accelerated as the economy recovered, giving him a strong average and third spot on the list.

5. Peter Davison, 5th Doctor, 1982-1984, 10.8 per cent average annual growth

Davison’s Doctor was more back to basics with cricket whites and celery on his lapel. Issues with inflation dominated his era, as well as a low level of housebuilding, but the introduction of mortgage interest relief boosted growth in the latter part of his tenure.

6. Colin Baker, 6th Doctor, 1984-1986, 11.1 per cent average annual growth

Colin Baker’s Doctor introduced us to another rogue Time Lord, the Rani, and was put on trial by his own people. As with his successor (McCoy), the housing market at the time benefited from Margaret Thatcher’s policies to drive homeownership including Right to Buy and mortgage interest rate relief, which led to high levels of house price growth. 

7. Sylvester McCoy, 7th Doctor, 1987-1989, 15.5 per cent average annual growth 

McCoy was the last Doctor of the original era, and more of a cunning schemer. This period still fell under Thatcher, whose housing policies were continuing to drive very high levels of growth, the second highest of any Doctor.

8. Paul McGann, 8th Doctor, May 1996, 2.7 per cent growth

The Doctor from the ill-fated TV movie, Paul McGann only appears once as the Doctor. 1996 marked the start of the recovery from the early 90s recession.

9. Christopher Eccleston, 9th Doctor, 2005, 7.5 per cent average annual growth

The first Doctor from the modern revival, his era was dominated by the fallout from the Time War. In the UK’s housing market history, 2005 sits between the 90s’ strong house price recovery and the pre-Great Financial Crash boom, but nonetheless has the highest price growth of the modern era. 

10. David Tennant, 10th Doctor, 2005-2010, 0.8 per cent average annual growth

Tennant saw the introduction of the Weeping Angels as well as the first conflict between the two most notable foes, the Daleks and the Cybermen. This period is also marked by the ‘credit crunch’, and a significant period of nominal price falls, leading to the lowest average price growth of the thirteen. 

11. Matt Smith, 11th Doctor, 2010-2013, 0.9 per cent average annual growth

A bow tie and fez enthusiast, Smith’s incarnation was the main Doctor during the show’s 50th anniversary. The housing market at the time was notable for its weak buyer sentiment, despite low interest rates in the aftermath of the credit crunch. 

12. Peter Capaldi, 12th Doctor, 2014-2017, 3.5 per cent average annual growth

Capaldi’s Doctor was a blunt and pragmatic type, with a complex relationship with the first female incarnation of longstanding rival the Master. Back in the housing market, the post GFC recovery became more sustained, helped by low interest rates and the introduction of Help to Buy, though tight mortgage regulation kept the market from getting too hot. 

13. Jodie Whittaker, 13th Doctor, 2018-2022, 5.5 per cent average annual growth

The latest full-time Doctor and the first female incarnation faced the return of The Master, before ultimately being forced to regenerate in a plot to take over her body. The start of this period was dictated by slower growth, but the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic caused pent-up demand, a race for space and a stamp duty holiday which drove incredible activity and subsequent price growth.

So what will the time covered by the new Doctor, Ncuti Gatwa, look like, assuming he is in post for three series as most of his predecessors have? Gatwa takes over a weak housing market with high interest rates dampening activity. Over the period he is expected to serve, the market is expected to begin its recovery, with an average 1.8 per cent annual growth forecast if he stays on to 2026, putting him behind McGann and ahead of Smith. 

You can read more about that in our forecasts here.

 

Further information

Contact Nick Gibson

 

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