This significant increase in online spending is of course a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, with multiple lockdowns forcing people to do their shopping online and therefore accelerating this long-term trend to new heights.

E-commerce in the lead

As a result of this demand, more and larger players including Amazon are entering the Dutch market and consequently tere is an increasing need for logistics space in order to deliver products ordered online to consumers on time and efficiently. The share of e-commerce parties in the total take-up of logistics real estate has grown steadily in recent years; where in 2015 only 40,000 sqm of logistics real estate was attributed to e-commerce parties, this rose to almost 230,000 sqm in 2020. In the same period, the total take-up volumes of logistics real estate in the Netherlands also increased significantly. In other words, the share of e-commerce within the take-up volumes increased from 1.6% to 9% in five years, indicating a growth of 300% in the annual take-up volume.

Brexit

In addition, it is expected that Brexit, and the associated higher shipping costs, VAT charges and delays in the ports, will push British companies towards the Dutch market. Brexit hampers distribution from the UK to Europe, and it could just as well be the Netherlands that is reaping the benefits, thanks to our strategic location, Rotterdam and Schiphol ports, and the fact that many Dutch people speak the English language. JD Sports is said to be one of the first parties to launch a specific search query for logistics space in the Netherlands due to Brexit (source: The Guardian).

International distribution versus aglo-logistics

Where international distributors like to establish themselves around the port of Rotterdam or Schiphol, e-commerce companies prefer to be located closer to densely populated, urban areas. Examples of areas where many warehouses are being developed for the distribution of online retail include Bleiswijk-Waddinxveen, Berkel en Rooderijs and Den Hoorn. In addition, there is an increasing need from the e-commerce sector for ever larger DCs. For example, a 140,000 m² distribution center was delivered for Zalando in 2019 in the Bleiswijk region.

Investor market follows the occupier market

The strong occupier market, with high demand and historically low vacancy rates, is generating increasing interest from investors with logistics developments being purchased at increasingly lower yields. We are starting to see the first transactions with yields below 4%.

E-commerce is clearly leaving its mark on the logistics real estate sector and there is undoubtedly more room for growth. With 500 British companies already having shown interest in establishing themselves in the Netherlands (source: NOS), this leads to the conclusion that the interest of both investors and occupiers in Dutch sheds will continue. Will two factors causing massive disruption in other sectors - Covid-19 and Brexit - make 2021 the year of Dutch logistics real estate?