The Savills Blog

Edinburgh's net migration bonus: a challenge or an opportunity?

Edinburgh city centre

Latest research by Savills underlines Edinburgh’s continued popularity as a location in which to live and work, but reveals challenges for housing supply.

Our examination of National Records of Scotland migration data shows that over a five-year period, more people moved into Scotland’s capital from all over the UK and overseas than emigrated from the city. A total of 149,933 people have moved into Edinburgh since 2011, compared with 125,753 who moved out over the same period, leading to a significant net migration gain.

This supply and demand imbalance has led to Edinburgh’s average house price increasing by 10.2 per cent in December 2017, compared with December 2016, reaching a record high of nearly £285,000. Our research also shows that the total value of all housing in the city increased by £7.5 billion between 2016 and 2017, from £61.4 billion to £68.9 billion. This was more than any other UK Local Authority district on a total value growth basis.

However, we are seeing an emerging trend whereby demand is now pushing beyond the city boundaries, with an increasing number or residents moving out of the Scottish capital and into the surrounding areas.

While Edinburgh’s values continue to rise, the total number of residential transactions increased last year by 2 per cent, which was lower than the rest of Scotland. The slower rate was mainly due to decreased second-hand market turnover in the price bands up to £200,000. Meanwhile, Edinburgh’s new build market continues to fill the void left by the slower second-hand market, with a 30 per cent annual increase in transactions last year.

The Strategic Development Plan (SES Plan) aims to ensure the City Region (including Edinburgh City and surrounding locations), is ‘underpinned by its high quality built and natural environment and continues to be internationally recognised as an outstanding area in which to live, work and do business’.

While this plan recognises that delivering housing will be vital to ensuring the future prosperity of the area, annual completions in Edinburgh (across both the private and public sectors), only reached 2,311 during the year ending September 2017. This is half the amount needed if it is to meet the SES Plan’s target of 22,300 homes for Edinburgh City by 2019.




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