Publication

City Investment Watch - August 2016

Strong statement by Wells Fargo as they purchase a new City HQ

Market comment and notable deals

■ July turnover was £460m across six deals bringing year-to-date total City turnover to £4.8bn, which is 18% lower than this point last year.

■ The 12-month rolling turnover for the City is currently at £9.6bn, which is 29% up on the long-term average.

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City 12-month rolling turnover

Source: Savills Research

■ In the City market, we are currently monitoring 70 investment opportunities totalling circa £4.2bn. Of this, we are aware 25 are currently under offer totalling circa £1.2bn, leaving an estimated £3bn worth of available opportunities.

■ A notable deal from July was the purchase of 33 Central, King William Street, EC4 for circa £260m, £1,156/ sq ft. The property has been bought by American bank Wells Fargo as their new HQ. The world's biggest bank by capitalisation, agreed the deal in principle prior the result of the referendum, and encouragingly decided to complete the purchase post-vote.

■ Another deal which exchanged in July was the purchase of 5 King William Street, EC4 for £87m, 3.77% and £1,061/sq ft. The property is single let to Daiwa Securities until March 2027. The asset has shown how a good quality building with long income security has good demand and therefore can command record low yields. The property was bought by a private Middle Eastern investor from Allegra European Holdings.

■ Of the 91 City transactions so far this year, the fringe has accounted for the largest number at 49 (42% of turnover). The core has accounted for 28 transactions (46% of turnover), Midtown with 11 transactions (9% of turnover), and the Docklands with three transactions (3% of turnover).

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City 2016 turnover by nationality

Source: Savills Research

■ To date in 2016 Asian purchasers have accounted for the highest level of turnover (42%), followed by UK purchasers (21%) and European (14%). The percentage share for US purchasers has risen following the Wells Fargo deal, as they have now accounted for 10% of City turnover.

■ The City leasing market is expecting a cyclical slowdown, which was being anticipated prior to the referendum. However, we are not expecting take-up to fall significantly below average levels, and with a pipeline that is consistently seeing more space pre-let, we do not expect a drastic increase in the vacancy rate. For instance, from 2017–21 we are forecasting the average annual vacancy rate to be circa 6.1%, which is low in historic context as the long-term average is 9.7%.

■ Savills prime City yield has remained at 4.25% for the second month. The spread between the City and the West End is still at 75bps with the West End prime yield also moving out 25bps last month to 3.50%.

Graph 3

GRAPH 3City & West End prime yield

Source: Savills Research

Table 1

TABLE 1Key deals in July 2016

Source: Savills Research