Publication

City Investment Watch – March 2016

2016 activity anticipated to accelerate with circa £2.7bn under-offer

Market comment and notable deals

■  February turnover was £128.35m across five deals. This brings year-todate total City turnover to £840.75m, which is 32% down on this point last year (Graph 1).

■  The 12-month rolling turnover for the City is currently at £10.4bn, which is 41% up on the long-term average (Graph 3).

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City turnover

Source: Savills Research

■  In the City market, we are currently monitoring 77 investment opportunities totalling £5.4bn. Of this, we are aware 26 are currently under-offer totalling circa £2.7bn, leaving an estimated £2.7bn worth of available investment opportunities.

■  We are also aware of at least another 30 properties that could potentially be available for sale within the City. The combined total of these would be circa £3.5bn.

■  A notable deal from February was the purchase of Central House, 59–63 Whitechapel High Street, E1 for circa £50m, £511/sq ft. This was a sale and lease-back from London Metropolitan University to Frasers Property UK. The university leased the property back at nil rent for 18 months, before the new owners will look to refurbish/ redevelop the building.

■  Another notable deal which completed in February was the purchase of Bridge House, 4 Borough High Street, SE1 for £29.5m, 4.01% NIY and £833/sq ft. The 35,421 sq ft multi-let property was bought by GMS from City & General (Marcol).

■  Of the 18 transactions completed so far this year, only six are within the City core, however, they have accounted for 57% of the total transactional volume.

■  To date in 2016 UK purchasers have accounted for 90% of all transactional volume. Asian, European, Middle Eastern and American purchasers make up the remainder, accounting for 2–3% each. It is certain this will change significantly in the coming months with Asian and American purchasers generally targeting the larger lot sizes (Graph 2).

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City 2016 turnover by nationality

Source: Savills Research

■  Savills prime City yield remains at 4%, which is an all time record low (Graph 3). Moreover, the spread between the City and the West End remains at 100bps with the West End prime yield at 3%.

Graph 3

GRAPH 312-month rolling turnover & prime yield

Source: Savills Research

Table 1

TABLE 1Key deals in February 2016

Source: Savills Research