The revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published last week confirmed significant uplift in housing requirements for England of over 20% at a national level.
Local planning authorities (LPAs) should be planning for 370,000 new homes per year under the new Standard Method for housing need, compared to current delivery of 221,000 net additional dwellings per year. The slight changes compared to the method published in August have resulted in a redistribution of need towards the South East of England, where affordability is most stretched.
But there have been more significant changes to the transition arrangements for Local Plans, meaning it is likely to be well over five years before combined Local Plan targets will have increased to exceed the government’s aspiration of 300,000 new homes per year.
Rather than a month post-publication, the transition period has been extended to three months – 12 March 2025. This will increase the number of Local Plans which proceed on the basis of the old Standard Method housing requirement figures. The approach varies depending on the stage that the Local Plan has reached as shown on the flow diagram below.
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Plan making
These arrangements have potential to affect a significant number of LPAs. Currently, there are 69 LPAs (23%) with Local Plans that will be less than 5 years old by March 2025, in addition to the 33 boroughs covered by the London Plan.
This leaves 194 LPAs that will immediately be required to use the new Standard Method calculation as the foundation for plan making after 12 March 2025, unless they can reach one of the milestones outlined above. 37 LPAs in this position have already reached Examination, alongside 12 LPAs that will still have up-to-date plans in place, but are already progressing with their next plan. The combined emerging annual housing targets in these areas totals 38,400, against a requirement of 55,240 homes per year using the new Standard Method. There are also 24 LPAs with a Reg 19 plan, with realistic prospects of submitting for Examination before the revised NPPF comes into effect.
As a consequence, even by the end of the current parliament, there is potential for around 25% of LPAs to have up-to-date plans in place that will not use the new Standard Method. This figure could be even higher if LPAs try to rush through plans with lower targets over the next couple of months; we have already seen 15 LPAs publish a Reg 19 plan since the NPPF consultation was published in the summer, and 12 LPAs submit for Examination.
Impact on land supply
With the published transitional arrangements in place we expect the combined total of Local Plan annual targets will remain around 250,000-260,000 homes until 2027, and will only exceed the government’s delivery target of 300,000 homes from the end of 2029. With this in mind, and given that approximately 26% of planning consents granted over the past 10 years have not been implemented (Read more here), in order to have any chance of increasing housebuilding in England to achieve the government’s target there is a need for further residential development sites to come forward through the planning system on land which is not allocated for development.